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Across 6,358 elections for prosecutor, judge, and sheriff in 45 states, 4,240 had no opponent. The median uncontested single-seat race drew 16,520 votes. The analysis combines certified precinct returns from 2022 and 2024.
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Outside groups have reported $844 million of independent expenditures for the 2026 midterms, 33 percent ahead of the same date in 2022. Primaries took 71 percent. In 2022, 70 percent of outside money was reported after mid-September.
Civly co-founder Zack Czajkowski joins Ron Steslow to discuss chatbots, voter information, and how campaigns are adapting to AI.
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Across 1,231 team-seasons at 129 programs, the season before and the share of the team that came back predict the win total. A coaching change costs about six points of the roster. Doubling the recruiting budget, coach pay, athletic aid or the athletic budget shows no effect.
Private foundations state on their tax returns whether they accept unsolicited grant requests. Of the 131,545 that answer, 27,218 say yes, about 21%. Civly lists 8,971 of them by state from their Form 990-PF filings, with the deadline, the restrictions, the contact and every grant paid.
Across 29 client Lexis searches and 33,771 articles, 49% were duplicates or about the wrong person. Duplicates were 31%. Wrong‑person articles range from 1% to 94%, depending on how common the candidate’s name is. In one Florida House race, 115 of 2,997 articles reached the research file.
Since 2016, 45 sitting House Democrats have faced a credible challenger measurably to their left, and nine of them lost. Challengers were outspent roughly 2.5 to 1 whether they won or lost. Winning challengers had a median of 905 donors, against 258 for those who lost.
About 16 million Americans will use a chatbot to help decide at least one contest in November. The most common method is to photograph the ballot, get declined, and rephrase the question until the model answers. AI’s role is negligible in Senate races and can be decisive in judicial and county races, which often carry no party cue.
In a model of contested congressional races from 1980–2024, doubling the number of contributing organizations while holding total dollars fixed changed predicted vote share by +1.11 points for challengers and −0.48 for incumbents. The estimates describe associations.
Thirteen sports hires had a warning documented before the contract was signed, in court records, league statements, published reporting, or information available to the club. Jacksonville hired Urban Meyer 2 years and 5 months after Ohio State suspended him, and he lasted 13 games.
Union-backed sides won 33 of 49 ballot measures. Funded legislators sponsored 4.2× as many pro-labor bills as unfunded colleagues, but passage rates were similar. The study also compares floor voting and close-election results.
Civly CTO Matthew Hanauer joins Eric Wilson on the Campaign Trend Podcast to discuss synthetic polling: testing models against certified election results, choosing question formats, and assessing when additional data helps. They also discuss uses in down-ballot races and message testing.
A study of 112 athletes with published contract values of $500K to $6.5M found no detectable relationship between Instagram audience and roster pay after accounting for performance and program scale. The results cover school and collective payments. Brand deals are a separate market.
We linked federal athletics records with IRS Form 990s for funders of 54 Division I programs. Booster foundations reported $1.69B in revenue, compared with $98.3M for NIL collectives, a ratio of 17 to 1.
Five models from five labs simulated the same 6,400 voter profiles across eight past elections. The panel average had a typical error of about 1 point across seven races. Disagreement was greatest on the eighth, which all five models misread.
We simulated nine potential Democratic replacements for Graham Platner against Susan Collins using 4,597 registered-voter profiles. Richardson and Bellows led by more than the method's typical error of 4.1 points. The other matchups were within that range.
The Civly Turnout Score classified voter turnout correctly 84% of the time across nine states in the 2024 general election, compared with 78% for a rule based on past participation. In a low-turnout municipal race, accuracy was 83% versus 67%.
Civly CEO Dan Barkhuff and CTO Matthew Hanauer join Nathaniel Pearlman to talk about their careers and building Civly, an AI platform for opposition research, donor prospecting, and polling.
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Civly published AI-based forecasts for the contested New York and Maryland House primaries before voting began. Nine of ten winner calls matched the certified results.
Explore $93 billion in reported payments to U.S. physicians and teaching hospitals from CMS Open Payments, 2018–2025. Browse by state, congressional district, or county, or search for a doctor by name.
In The Fulcrum, Civly CEO Daniel Barkhuff argues that the DNC's 192-page review of the 2024 election should have addressed AI's role in campaigns and how voters receive information.
Civly's review of the DNC's 192-page post-election report found no mention of artificial intelligence. Civly calls for AI adoption, source verification, human review, and protections for children.
Campaigns & Elections reports on Civly founder Dan Barkhuff's use of AI to compile property records, criminal histories, campaign-finance data, and social media for opposition research.
Daniel Barkhuff announces Civly.ai, a political technology company providing research and campaign tools for Democratic organizations.
The North Carolina startup launches Research Books, Command Center, and Compliance, with candidate research delivered in days.
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