Seats that changed party
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Politics Research · Election Results
2026 midterms · Unofficial results as of 7:12 AM EST, November 4
Outside money mostly backed the losers in the 2026 midterms
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, according to network projections from CNN, NBC News and CBS News. In the House and Senate races called by the morning after, outside groups reported $2.12 billion of general-election spending, and $1.23 billion of it, 58%, helped the side that lost. 34 seats changed party, all to Democrats.
Unofficial results
As of 7:12 AM EST, November 4, 302 of 506 House, Senate and governor races had a winner. 204 were still being counted, most of them House seats in California and other Western states. Results are unofficial until each state certifies, and close races can change with late ballots and recounts.
Outside money behind the losing side
$1.23B
Races called
302 of 506
Winners new to office
88
Outside money
58% of outside money helped the side that lost
Outside groups reported $2.12 billion of general-election spending in the House and Senate races called so far. $1.23 billion of it helped the losing side. In 38 of 137 races, the losing side had more outside help than the winner.
$1.23B helped the side that lost$0.89B helped the winner
Senate winners who had less outside help than the loser
| Race | Winner | Helping the winner | Helping the losing side |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | James Talarico | $108.3M | $314.5M |
| Ohio Senate (special) | Sherrod Brown | $155.4M | $224.7M |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-Sayed | $91.0M | $169.6M |
| Maine Senate | Troy Jackson | $51.4M | $80.2M |
| North Carolina Senate | Roy Cooper | $28.2M | $46.4M |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris Pappas | $24.0M | $39.1M |
The ten biggest outside spenders, and how much of their money backed a winner
| Group | Helped | Spending | Share that backed a winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLF PAC | Republicans | $323.6M | 3% |
| WinSenate | Democrats | $270.3M | 100% |
| Texas PAC | Republicans | $181.9M | 0% |
| No Going Back PAC | Republicans | $148.6M | 0% |
| Americans for Prosperity Action | Republicans | $79.4M | 2% |
| America PAC | Republicans | $77.6M | 0% |
| Lower Costs Now | Democrats | $73.1M | 99% |
| HMP | Democrats | $73.0M | 100% |
| Defend American Jobs | Republicans | $71.1M | 20% |
| MAGA Inc. | Republicans | $39.2M | 0% |
General-election independent expenditures reported to the FEC through November 1, in races called by 7:12 AM EST on November 4.
Outspent
Five winners who were heavily outspent
Each side’s total counts money raised, outside spending and TV orders naming its candidate.
The five races, by money for each side
| Race | Winner | Winner’s side | Other side |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya (D) | $6.5M | $20.2M |
| GA-14 | Clay Fuller (R) | $2.2M | $8.4M |
| NC-6 | Cyril Jefferson (D) | $232,325 | $1.6M |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack (D) | $59,183 | $2.5M |
| Montana Senate | Kurt Alme (R) | $6.2M | $16.3M |
Upsets
Democrats won nine races the raters expected Republicans to win
Two of the nine were rated Safe Republican and four Likely Republican. Gina Hinojosa beat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Annie Andrews beat Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina, a state that leans Republican by 8 points on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. AP has called both races.
The nine upsets, with the raters’ calls and results
| Race | Winner | Raters’ call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC-6 | Cyril Jefferson | Safe R | 51.1% to 48.9% |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack | Safe R | 51.1% to 48.9% |
| IN-5 | J. D. Ford | Likely R | 51.7% to 48.3% |
| NJ-2 | Zack Mullock | Likely R | 51.1% to 47.9% |
| NC-9 | Richard Ojeda | Likely R | 51.1% to 48.9% |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer | Likely R | 50.5% to 48.1% |
| AL-2 | Shomari Figures | Lean R | 53.8% to 46.2% |
| South Carolina Senate | Annie Andrews | Lean R | 51.1% to 46.7% |
| Texas governor | Gina Hinojosa | Lean R | 52.8% to 45.7% |
Raters’ call is the middle rating of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball as of November 2. Results are NBC News shares of the vote. The three North Carolina seats each round to 51.1% to 48.9%; the North Carolina State Board of Elections count confirms them: NC-6 140,001 to 133,737, NC-9 138,707 to 132,692 and NC-14 147,388 to 140,973.
Where the seats changed
Four states had three or more seats change party
- North Carolina: NC-6, NC-9, NC-11, NC-13, NC-14 and the Senate seat
- Iowa: IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, the Senate seat and the governor
- Pennsylvania: PA-1, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-10
- Texas: TX-15, the Senate seat and the governor
Small donors
Small donors gave most of the money for five of the six new senators we profiled
Share of money raised from donors giving under $200, from FEC reports through October 14: Annie Andrews (South Carolina) 80% of $24.2M, Josh Turek (Iowa) 78% of $24.3M, James Talarico (Texas) 76% of $146.3M, Adam Hamilton (Kansas) 69% of $19.2M and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) 59% of $68.4M. Roy Cooper (North Carolina) raised 19% of $49.6M that way. Full profiles are under Funding profiles of nine newcomers.
Appointed senators
Two of three appointed senators lost
Ashley Moody won the Florida seat she was appointed to. Jon Husted lost the Ohio special election to Sherrod Brown. Darline Graham, appointed in South Carolina in July after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died, lost to Annie Andrews. Two other incumbents lost Senate seats, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Susan Collins in Maine, along with two governors, Joe Lombardo in Nevada and Greg Abbott in Texas.
By the numbers
Who stays and who is new
| Office | Called | Stays in power | New to office | Changed party |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 33 of 35 | 16 | 17 | 7 |
| Governors | 33 of 36 | 14 | 19 | 5 |
| House | 236 of 435 | 184 | 52 | 22 |
Of the 88 winners new to office, 61 won open seats, 22 beat the incumbent, 2 beat a senator who had been appointed to the seat, and 3 won seats created by redistricting.
Civly also forecast 27 of these races before Election Day. The forecast picked the winner in 24 of them.
Every race
The full results
Every House, Senate and governor race, with the race raters’ calls, who held each seat, and links to each race’s FEC filings.
Senate: all 35 races
33 of 35 races have a winner. 7 seats changed party: Ohio Senate (special), Iowa Senate, Kansas Senate, Maine Senate, North Carolina Senate, South Carolina Senate, Texas Senate. Three senators on the ballot had been appointed to fill a vacancy and never won the seat. Ashley Moody (Florida) won it. Jon Husted (Ohio) lost to Sherrod Brown. Darline Graham (South Carolina), appointed in July after her brother Lindsey Graham died, lost to Annie Andrews.
| Race | Winner | Party | Result | Held before by | Raters' call | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Senate | Barry Moore | R | New: open seat | Tommy Tuberville (R) | Safe R | |
| Alaska Senate | Not called | Not called | Dan Sullivan (R) | Tossup | ||
| Arkansas Senate | Tom Cotton | R | Re-elected | Tom Cotton (R) | Safe R | |
| Colorado Senate | John Hickenlooper | D | Re-elected | John Hickenlooper (D) | Safe D | |
| Delaware Senate | Chris Coons | D | Re-elected | Chris Coons (D) | Safe D | |
| Florida Senate (special) | Ashley Moody | R | Elected (was appointed) | Ashley Moody (R) | Likely R | |
| Georgia Senate | Jon Ossoff | D | Re-elected | Jon Ossoff (D) | Likely D | |
| Idaho Senate | Jim Risch | R | Re-elected | Jim Risch (R) | Safe R | |
| Illinois Senate | Juliana Stratton | D | New: open seat | Dick Durbin (D) | Safe D | |
| Iowa Senate | Josh Turek | D | New: open seat | Joni Ernst (R) | Tossup | Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 6 points. Josh Turek 50.5%, Ashley Hinson 46.4%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| Kansas Senate | Adam Hamilton | D | New: beat the incumbent | Roger Marshall (R) | Tossup | Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Adam Hamilton 50.9%, Roger Marshall 46.1%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| Kentucky Senate | Andy Barr | R | New: open seat | Mitch McConnell (R) | Safe R | |
| Louisiana Senate | Julia Letlow | R | New: open seat | Bill Cassidy (R) | Likely R | |
| Maine Senate | Troy Jackson | D | New: beat the incumbent | Susan Collins (R) | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Troy Jackson 53.8%, Susan Collins 46.1%, 86% of expected vote counted (NBC News). AP call confirmed. Collins conceded. |
| Massachusetts Senate | Ed Markey | D | Re-elected | Ed Markey (D) | Safe D | |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-Sayed | D | New: open seat | Gary Peters (D) | Lean D | |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan | D | New: open seat | Tina Smith (D) | Likely D | |
| Mississippi Senate | Not called | Not called | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | Likely R | ||
| Montana Senate | Kurt Alme | R | New: open seat | Steve Daines (R) | Safe R | Won while outspent 2.6 to 1. Kurt Alme 48.2%, Seth Bodnar 38.1%, 83% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| Nebraska Senate | Pete Ricketts | R | Re-elected | Pete Ricketts (R) | Lean R | |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris Pappas | D | New: open seat | Jeanne Shaheen (D) | Likely D | |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory Booker | D | Re-elected | Cory Booker (D) | Safe D | |
| New Mexico Senate | Ben Ray Luján | D | Re-elected | Ben Ray Luján (D) | Safe D | |
| North Carolina Senate | Roy Cooper | D | New: open seat | Thom Tillis (R) | Likely D | |
| Ohio Senate (special) | Sherrod Brown | D | New: beat the appointed senator | Jon Husted (R) | Tilt D | Appointed senator lost |
| Oklahoma Senate | Kevin Hern | R | New: open seat | Alan Armstrong (R) | Safe R | |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff Merkley | D | Re-elected | Jeff Merkley (D) | Safe D | |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed | D | Re-elected | Jack Reed (D) | Safe D | |
| South Carolina Senate | Annie Andrews | D | New: beat the appointed senator | Darline Graham (R) | Lean R | Upset: raters had Lean R. Appointed senator lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Annie Andrews 51.1%, Darline Graham 46.7%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). AP call confirmed. Andrews about 51% to 47%. |
| South Dakota Senate | Mike Rounds | R | Re-elected | Mike Rounds (R) | Safe R | |
| Tennessee Senate | Bill Hagerty | R | Re-elected | Bill Hagerty (R) | Safe R | |
| Texas Senate | James Talarico | D | New: open seat | John Cornyn (R) | Tilt D | |
| Virginia Senate | Mark Warner | D | Re-elected | Mark Warner (D) | Safe D | |
| West Virginia Senate | Shelley Moore Capito | R | Re-elected | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | Safe R | |
| Wyoming Senate | Harriet Hageman | R | New: open seat | Cynthia Lummis (R) | Safe R |
Governors: all 36 races
33 of 36 races have a winner. 5 seats changed party: Georgia governor, Iowa governor, Nevada governor, Ohio governor, Texas governor.
| Race | Winner | Party | Result | Held before by | Raters' call | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama governor | Tommy Tuberville | R | New: open seat | Kay Ivey (R) | Safe R | |
| Alaska governor | Not called | Not called | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Lean D | ||
| Arizona governor | Katie Hobbs | D | Re-elected | Katie Hobbs (D) | Likely D | |
| Arkansas governor | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R | Re-elected | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | Safe R | |
| California governor | Xavier Becerra | D | New: open seat | Gavin Newsom (D) | Safe D | |
| Colorado governor | Phil Weiser | D | New: open seat | Jared Polis (D) | Safe D | |
| Connecticut governor | Ned Lamont | D | Re-elected | Ned Lamont (D) | Safe D | |
| Florida governor | Byron Donalds | R | New: open seat | Ron DeSantis (R) | Lean R | |
| Georgia governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms | D | New: open seat | Brian Kemp (R) | Tilt D | |
| Hawaii governor | Josh Green | D | Re-elected | Josh Green (D) | Safe D | |
| Idaho governor | Brad Little | R | Re-elected | Brad Little (R) | Safe R | |
| Illinois governor | JB Pritzker | D | Re-elected | JB Pritzker (D) | Safe D | |
| Iowa governor | Rob Sand | D | New: open seat | Kim Reynolds (R) | Lean D | |
| Kansas governor | Not called | Not called | Laura Kelly (D) | Lean R | ||
| Maine governor | Hannah Pingree | D | New: open seat | Janet Mills (D) | Safe D | |
| Maryland governor | Wes Moore | D | Re-elected | Wes Moore (D) | Safe D | |
| Massachusetts governor | Maura Healey | D | Re-elected | Maura Healey (D) | Safe D | |
| Michigan governor | Jocelyn Benson | D | New: open seat | Gretchen Whitmer (D) | Lean D | |
| Minnesota governor | Amy Klobuchar | D | New: open seat | Tim Walz (D) | Safe D | |
| Nebraska governor | Jim Pillen | R | Re-elected | Jim Pillen (R) | Likely R | |
| Nevada governor | Aaron Ford | D | New: beat the incumbent | Joe Lombardo (R) | Tossup | Incumbent lost. Aaron Ford 51.7%, Joe Lombardo 44.2%, 87% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| New Hampshire governor | Kelly Ayotte | R | Re-elected | Kelly Ayotte (R) | Likely R | |
| New Mexico governor | Deb Haaland | D | New: open seat | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | Safe D | |
| New York governor | Kathy Hochul | D | Re-elected | Kathy Hochul (D) | Safe D | |
| Ohio governor | Amy Acton | D | New: open seat | Mike DeWine (R) | Lean D | |
| Oklahoma governor | Mike Mazzei | R | New: open seat | Kevin Stitt (R) | Likely R | |
| Oregon governor | Not called | Not called | Tina Kotek (D) | Lean D | ||
| Pennsylvania governor | Josh Shapiro | D | Re-elected | Josh Shapiro (D) | Safe D | |
| Rhode Island governor | Helena Foulkes | D | New: open seat | Dan McKee (D) | Safe D | |
| South Carolina governor | Alan Wilson | R | New: open seat | Henry McMaster (R) | Safe R | |
| South Dakota governor | Larry Rhoden | R | Re-elected | Larry Rhoden (R) | Safe R | |
| Tennessee governor | Marsha Blackburn | R | New: open seat | Bill Lee (R) | Safe R | |
| Texas governor | Gina Hinojosa | D | New: beat the incumbent | Greg Abbott (R) | Lean R | Upset: raters had Lean R. Incumbent lost. Gina Hinojosa 52.8%, Greg Abbott 45.7%, 94% of expected vote counted (NBC News). AP call confirmed. Hinojosa about 52.5% to 46.0%. |
| Vermont governor | Phil Scott | R | Re-elected | Phil Scott (R) | Likely R | |
| Wisconsin governor | David Crowley | D | New: open seat | Tony Evers (D) | Lean D | |
| Wyoming governor | Eric Barlow | R | New: open seat | Mark Gordon (R) | Safe R |
House: seats that changed party and new members
236 of 435 races have a winner: 184 members re-elected and 52 new members. 22 seats changed party and 18 members lost re-election. Re-elected members are listed in Appendix A.
Seats that changed party
| District | Winner | Party | Held before by | Raters' call | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-01 | Mike McGuire | D | James Gallagher (R) | Safe, not rated | Incumbent lost. Mike McGuire 57.0%, James Gallagher 43.0%, 50% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| CA-06 | Richard Pan | D | Kevin Kiley (I) | Safe D | Incumbent lost. Richard Pan 57.5%, Kevin Kiley 42.5%, 50% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| CO-08 | Manny Rutinel | D | Gabe Evans (R) | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Manny Rutinel 55.5%, Gabe Evans 40.8%, 78% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| IN-05 | J. D. Ford | D | Victoria Spartz (R) | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. J.D. Ford 51.7%, Victoria Spartz 48.3%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| IA-01 | Christina Bohannan | D | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Christina Bohannan 52.8%, Mariannette Miller-Meeks 43.6%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James | D | Ashley Hinson (R) | Tossup | |
| IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott | D | Zach Nunn (R) | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Sarah Trone Garriott 53.7%, Zach Nunn 46.3%, 97% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| KY-06 | Zach Dembo | D | Andy Barr (R) | Tossup | Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 7 points. Zach Dembo 52.7%, Ralph Alvarado 43.3%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| MO-02 | Fred Wellman | D | Ann Wagner (R) | Tilt R | Incumbent lost. Fred Wellman 51.1%, Ann Wagner 46.2%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NE-02 | Denise Powell | D | Don Bacon (R) | Likely D | |
| NJ-02 | Zack Mullock | D | Jeff Van Drew (R) | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 5 points. Zack Mullock 51.1%, Jeff Van Drew 47.9%, 89% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NJ-07 | Rebecca Bennett | D | Thomas Kean Jr. (R) | Likely D | Incumbent lost. Rebecca Bennett 57.1%, Thomas Kean Jr. 41.4%, 94% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NC-06 | Cyril Jefferson | D | Addison McDowell (R) | Safe R | Big upset: raters had Safe R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 9 points. Won while outspent 6.7 to 1. Cyril Jefferson 51.1%, Addison McDowell 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| NC-09 | Richard Ojeda | D | Richard Hudson (R) | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Richard Ojeda II 51.1%, Richard Hudson 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager | D | Chuck Edwards (R) | Lean D | |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer | D | Brad Knott (R) | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Paul Barringer 50.5%, Brad Knott 48.1%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack | D | Tim Moore (R) | Safe R | Big upset: raters had Safe R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Won while outspent 41.9 to 1. Lakesha Womack 51.1%, Tim Moore 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| PA-01 | Bob Harvie | D | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | Tossup | Incumbent lost. Bob Harvie 52.7%, Brian Fitzpatrick 47.3%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| PA-07 | Bob Brooks | D | Ryan Mackenzie (R) | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Bob Brooks 56.0%, Ryan Mackenzie 44.0%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti | D | Rob Bresnahan (R) | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Paige Cognetti 54.4%, Rob Bresnahan Jr. 45.6%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson | D | Scott Perry (R) | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Janelle Stelson 55.0%, Scott Perry 45.0%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| TX-15 | Not marked yet | D | Monica De La Cruz (R) | Tilt D | Incumbent lost. Bobby Pulido 62.3%, Monica De La Cruz 37.7%, 95% of expected vote counted (NBC News).. Page reports the result, winner not yet marked |
New members
| District | New member | Party | How | Raters' call | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Jerry Carl | R | new seat | Safe, not rated | |
| CA-01 | Mike McGuire | D | beat the incumbent, replaces James Gallagher | Safe, not rated | Incumbent lost. Mike McGuire 57.0%, James Gallagher 43.0%, 50% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| CA-06 | Richard Pan | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Kevin Kiley | Safe D | Incumbent lost. Richard Pan 57.5%, Kevin Kiley 42.5%, 50% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin | D | open seat, replaces Julia Brownley | Safe, not rated | |
| CA-38 | Hilda Solis | D | new seat | Safe, not rated | |
| CO-01 | Melat Kiros | D | open seat, replaces Diana DeGette | Safe, not rated | |
| CO-08 | Manny Rutinel | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Gabe Evans | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Manny Rutinel 55.5%, Gabe Evans 40.8%, 78% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| CT-01 | Luke Bronin | D | open seat, replaces John B. Larson | Safe, not rated | |
| FL-02 | Austin Rogers | R | open seat, replaces Neal Dunn | Safe R | |
| FL-11 | Joe Strada | R | open seat, replaces Daniel Webster | Safe R | |
| FL-16 | Sydney Gruters | R | open seat, replaces Vern Buchanan | Likely R | |
| FL-19 | Jim Schwartzel | R | open seat, replaces Byron Donalds | Safe, not rated | |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya | D | new seat | Tossup | Won while outspent 3.1 to 1. Pia Dandiya 51.9%, Casey Askar 48.1%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert | D | open seat, replaces Frederica Wilson | Safe, not rated | |
| GA-01 | Jim Kingston | R | open seat, replaces Buddy Carter | Safe R | |
| GA-10 | Houston Gaines | R | open seat, replaces Mike Collins | Safe R | |
| GA-11 | John Cowan | R | open seat, replaces Barry Loudermilk | Safe, not rated | |
| GA-13 | Jasmine Clark | D | open seat, replaces Everton Blair | Safe, not rated | |
| IL-02 | Donna Miller | D | open seat, replaces Robin Kelly | Safe, not rated | |
| IL-04 | Patty García | D | open seat, replaces Chuy García | Safe, not rated | |
| IL-07 | La Shawn Ford | D | open seat, replaces Danny Davis | Safe, not rated | |
| IL-08 | Melissa Bean | D | open seat, replaces Raja Krishnamoorthi | Safe, not rated | |
| IL-09 | Daniel Biss | D | open seat, replaces Jan Schakowsky | Safe, not rated | |
| IN-05 | J. D. Ford | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Victoria Spartz | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. J.D. Ford 51.7%, Victoria Spartz 48.3%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| IA-01 | Christina Bohannan | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Christina Bohannan 52.8%, Mariannette Miller-Meeks 43.6%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James | D | open seat, replaces Ashley Hinson | Tossup | |
| IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Zach Nunn | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Sarah Trone Garriott 53.7%, Zach Nunn 46.3%, 97% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| IA-04 | Chris McGowan | R | open seat, replaces Randy Feenstra | Safe, not rated | |
| KY-04 | Ed Gallrein | R | open seat, replaces Thomas Massie | Safe, not rated | |
| KY-06 | Zach Dembo | D | open seat, replaces Andy Barr | Tossup | Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 7 points. Zach Dembo 52.7%, Ralph Alvarado 43.3%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| MD-05 | Adrian Boafo | D | open seat, replaces Steny Hoyer | Safe, not rated | |
| MA-06 | Dan Koh | D | open seat, replaces Seth Moulton | Safe, not rated | |
| MI-11 | Jeremy Moss | D | open seat, replaces Haley Stevens | Safe, not rated | |
| MI-13 | Donavan McKinney | D | open seat, replaces Shri Thanedar | Safe, not rated | |
| MO-02 | Fred Wellman | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Ann Wagner | Tilt R | Incumbent lost. Fred Wellman 51.1%, Ann Wagner 46.2%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| MO-06 | Chris Stigall | R | open seat, replaces Sam Graves | Safe, not rated | |
| NE-02 | Denise Powell | D | open seat, replaces Don Bacon | Likely D | |
| NH-01 | Stefany Shaheen | D | open seat, replaces Chris Pappas | Likely D | |
| NJ-02 | Zack Mullock | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Jeff Van Drew | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 5 points. Zack Mullock 51.1%, Jeff Van Drew 47.9%, 89% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NJ-07 | Rebecca Bennett | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Thomas Kean Jr. | Likely D | Incumbent lost. Rebecca Bennett 57.1%, Thomas Kean Jr. 41.4%, 94% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NJ-12 | Adam Hamawy | D | open seat, replaces Bonnie Watson Coleman | Safe, not rated | |
| NC-06 | Cyril Jefferson | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Addison McDowell | Safe R | Big upset: raters had Safe R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 9 points. Won while outspent 6.7 to 1. Cyril Jefferson 51.1%, Addison McDowell 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| NC-09 | Richard Ojeda | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Richard Hudson | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Richard Ojeda II 51.1%, Richard Hudson 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager | D | open seat, replaces Chuck Edwards | Lean D | |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Brad Knott | Likely R | Big upset: raters had Likely R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Paul Barringer 50.5%, Brad Knott 48.1%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Tim Moore | Safe R | Big upset: raters had Safe R. Incumbent lost. Flipped a seat that leans Republican by 8 points. Won while outspent 41.9 to 1. Lakesha Womack 51.1%, Tim Moore 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| PA-01 | Bob Harvie | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Brian Fitzpatrick | Tossup | Incumbent lost. Bob Harvie 52.7%, Brian Fitzpatrick 47.3%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| PA-03 | Chris Rabb | D | open seat, replaces Dwight Evans | Safe, not rated | |
| PA-07 | Bob Brooks | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Ryan Mackenzie | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Bob Brooks 56.0%, Ryan Mackenzie 44.0%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Rob Bresnahan | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Paige Cognetti 54.4%, Rob Bresnahan Jr. 45.6%, 98% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Scott Perry | Lean D | Incumbent lost. Janelle Stelson 55.0%, Scott Perry 45.0%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| TX-15 | Not marked yet | D | beat the incumbent, replaces Monica De La Cruz | Tilt D | Incumbent lost. Bobby Pulido 62.3%, Monica De La Cruz 37.7%, 95% of expected vote counted (NBC News).. Page reports the result, winner not yet marked |
The surprises: upsets, flips against the district’s lean, outspent winners
The rules for what counts as a surprise were written down before polls closed. The race raters are the independent forecasters (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball and others). Each row shows their middle call and links to the ratings table it comes from. Each result links to NBC News' results page for the race, and to a news report where the call was checked.
Upsets against the race raters
| Race | Winner | What the raters expected | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN-05 | J. D. Ford (D) | Likely Republican (Cook Lean R, Inside Elections Likely R, Sabato Likely R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | J.D. Ford 51.7%, Victoria Spartz 48.3%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NJ-02 | Zack Mullock (D) | Likely Republican (Cook Likely R, Inside Elections Likely R, Sabato Lean R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Zack Mullock 51.1%, Jeff Van Drew 47.9%, 89% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NC-06 | Cyril Jefferson (D) | Safe Republican (Cook Solid R, Inside Elections Solid R, Sabato Safe R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Cyril Jefferson 51.1%, Addison McDowell 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| NC-09 | Richard Ojeda (D) | Likely Republican (Cook Likely R, Inside Elections Likely R, Sabato Likely R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Richard Ojeda II 51.1%, Richard Hudson 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer (D) | Likely Republican (Cook Likely R, Inside Elections Likely R, Sabato Likely R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Paul Barringer 50.5%, Brad Knott 48.1%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| NC-14 | Lakesha Womack (D) | Safe Republican (Cook Likely R, Inside Elections Solid R, Sabato Safe R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Lakesha Womack 51.1%, Tim Moore 48.9%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). The North Carolina State Board of Elections count matches. |
| AL-02 | Shomari Figures (D) | Lean Republican (Cook Lean R, Inside Elections Tilt R, Sabato Lean D). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Shomari Figures 53.8%, Rhett Marques 46.2%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). |
| South Carolina Senate | Annie Andrews (D) | Lean Republican (Cook Lean R, Inside Elections Tilt R, Sabato Lean R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Annie Andrews 51.1%, Darline Graham 46.7%, 99% of expected vote counted (NBC News). AP call confirmed. Andrews about 51% to 47%. |
| Texas governor | Gina Hinojosa (D) | Lean Republican (Cook Lean R, Inside Elections Tilt R, Sabato Lean R). Ratings as of Nov 2 | Gina Hinojosa 52.8%, Greg Abbott 45.7%, 94% of expected vote counted (NBC News). AP call confirmed. Hinojosa about 52.5% to 46.0%. |
Seats that flipped against the district's lean
Seats where the area leans 5 points or more toward the party that lost it, and the raters had not expected the winner. The lean is the Cook Partisan Voting Index: how much more Republican or Democratic the area voted than the country in the last two presidential elections.
Won while outspent
Money raised, plus outside spending helping each side, plus TV orders naming its candidate. Counted only when the other side had over $1 million. Not applied to governor races.
Funding profiles of nine newcomers
Funding profiles for nine new members. Money raised comes from each campaign's FEC reports through October 14. Outside spending comes from FEC independent expenditure reports through November 1, with amended copies and fake filings removed. TV figures are broadcast orders filed with stations since September 1, which include ads attacking the candidate.
Annie Andrews, South Carolina Senate
Result: New: beat the appointed senator. Seat held before by Darline Graham (R). Raters had Lean R.
Money raised: $24.2M through Oct 14, $1.7M cash on hand. About $19.4M, 80% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: MUSC $63,118, Cincinnati Childrens Hospital $19,258, Stanford University $13,627, Childrens National Hospital $11,994, Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago $11,100, Prisma Health $10,999.
Top PAC givers: 314 Action Fund $19,550, National Emergency Medicine Political Action Committee / American College of Emergency Physicians $10,000, Emilys List $10,000, American Mobilization PAC $10,000, Liftoff PAC $10,000, Vote Mama $10,000, Cache PAC $5,000, Back the Bold $5,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: Government That Works PAC $3.2M, BlackPAC $3.0M, FRESH START SC PAC $870,750, WinSenate $752,332.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: SLF PAC $12.6M, Security Is Strength PAC $4.0M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1.5M, GREAT OPPORTUNITY PAC, INC. $744,000.
Largest TV buyers naming the candidate: Dr. Annie Andrews for Senate $843,334, Great Opportunity PAC $271,810, SLF PAC $264,900, POL/Security is Strength - SIS PAC $195,200.
James Talarico, Texas Senate
Result: New: open seat. Seat held before by John Cornyn (R). Raters had Tilt D.
Money raised: $146.3M through Oct 14, $9.9M cash on hand. About $110.9M, 76% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: University of Texas $76,184, Google $55,791, Baylor College of Medicine $48,766, Apple, Inc. $33,655, Texas A&M University $23,244, Amazon $22,118.
Top PAC givers: Advancing Democracy and Mobilization PAC $12,000, Lobo PAC $10,000, SD PAC $10,000, Midwest Region Laborers' Political League $7,500, Communications Workers of America - COPE Political Contributions Committee $5,750, American Association for Justice Political Action Committee (AAJ PAC) $5,000, Amalgamated Transit Union - COPE $5,000, Alsopac $5,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: Texas Forever $8.0M, Lower Costs Now $6.7M, Lone Star Rising PAC $4.5M, AB PAC $4.2M.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: TEXAS PAC $112.2M, America PAC $41.4M, MAGA INC. $30.1M, LONE STAR LIBERTY PAC $16.5M.
Largest TV buyers naming the candidate: Thematic Campaigns / POL $4.7M, POL/ James Talarico / D / US Senate / TX $1.1M, TALARICO FOR TEXAS $1.1M, Thematic Campaigns $1.0M.
Troy Jackson, Maine Senate
Result: New: beat the incumbent. Seat held before by Susan Collins (R). Raters had Lean D.
Money raised: $26.9M through Oct 14, $1.6M cash on hand.
Top PAC givers: International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Political Action Committee $10,000, Lobo PAC $10,000, Communications Workers of America - COPE Political Contributions Committee $10,000, Advancing Democracy and Mobilization PAC $10,000, American Federation of Teachers, AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education $10,000, Amalgamated Transit Union - COPE $10,000, American Association for Justice Political Action Committee (AAJ PAC) $10,000, M-PAC $10,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: CFFE PAC $5.0M, WinSenate $4.5M, Government That Works PAC $1.6M, One For All Committee $603,553.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: SLF PAC $37.5M, PINE TREE RESULTS PAC $20.3M, THE MAINE STANDARD $9.9M, STRONGER MAINE $2.3M.
Largest TV buyers naming the candidate: TKO POLITICAL $76,190, Lead Maine Committee $67,200, Women for Troy $41,085, Troy Jackson for Senate $19,003.
Sherrod Brown, Ohio Senate (special)
Result: New: beat the appointed senator. Seat held before by Jon Husted (R). Raters had Tilt D.
Money raised: $68.4M through Oct 14, $4.5M cash on hand. About $40.3M, 59% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: Cleveland Clinic $34,433, Ohio State University $30,548, Clifford LAW Offices $18,500, Case Western Reserve University $16,119, University of Cincinnati $15,124, Mcarthurglen Group $14,000.
Top PAC givers: Advancing Democracy and Mobilization PAC $23,000, Blue HEN Federal PAC $10,000, American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees P E O P L E $10,000, A New Direction PAC $10,000, Amalgamated Transit Union - COPE $10,000, All for Our Country Leadership PAC $10,000, Blue Wave Project $10,000, Common Ground PAC $10,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: WinSenate $9.1M, CFFE PAC $4.1M, New American Jobs Fund $4.0M, AB PAC $2.6M.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: SLF PAC $92.3M, DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS $19.7M, 75 PAC $14.8M, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $12.7M.
Largest TV buyers naming the candidate: Grassroots Media LLC $5.7M, Grassroots Media LLC / POL $4.1M, GRASSROOTS MEDIA LLC $1.7M, Sherrod Brown for US Senate $941,214.
Josh Turek, Iowa Senate
Result: New: open seat. Seat held before by Joni Ernst (R). Raters had Tossup.
Money raised: $24.3M through Oct 14, $3.1M cash on hand. About $18.9M, 78% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: Trial Lawyers for Justice $35,000, Jane Street $16,122, Advantage Administrators $14,000, Q Prime $14,000, State of Iowa $11,243, Google $9,213.
Top PAC givers: DSCC $62,000, Advancing Democracy and Mobilization PAC $10,000, All for Our Country Leadership PAC $10,000, Blue HEN Federal PAC $10,000, Blue Wave Project $10,000, Common Ground PAC $10,000, American Association for Justice Political Action Committee (AAJ PAC) $10,000, Forward Together PAC $10,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: Lower Costs Now $18.4M, WinSenate $5.3M, Government That Works PAC $3.3M, CFFE PAC $2.4M.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: SLF PAC $48.2M, FIGHT ON IOWA $10.1M, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $6.3M, Win it Back PAC $3.8M.
Largest TV buyers naming the candidate: Canal Partners Media $1.5M, Josh Turek for Iowa $1.2M, Lower Costs Now $471,000, DSCC-Josh Turek $423,930.
Adam Hamilton, Kansas Senate
Result: New: beat the incumbent. Seat held before by Roger Marshall (R). Raters had Tossup.
Money raised: $19.2M through Oct 14, $2.9M cash on hand. About $13.2M, 69% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: Hallmark Cards Incorporated $24,881, Euronet $14,000, Reece Nichols $14,000, Colorectal Surgical Associates $14,000, Culver's $14,000, KC Royals $14,000.
Top PAC givers: Common Ground PAC $10,000, Blue HEN Federal PAC $10,000, Mitten PAC $10,000, Lobo PAC $10,000, American Association for Justice Political Action Committee (AAJ PAC) $5,000, Advancing Democracy and Mobilization PAC $5,000, American Mobilization PAC $5,000, I GOT Your Back PAC $5,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: Lower Costs Now $5.0M, Government That Works PAC $3.6M, United Futures PAC $650,816, Ready for the Fight $508,505.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: SLF PAC $16.2M, MAIN STREET FUND $3.8M, Club for Growth Action $2.5M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $2.5M.
Largest TV buyers naming the candidate: Choose Freedom PAC $2.2M, Hamilton for Kansas $2.0M, Plains PAC $1.9M, People Over Politics PAC $1.3M.
Roy Cooper, North Carolina Senate
Result: New: open seat. Seat held before by Thom Tillis (R). Raters had Likely D.
Money raised: $49.6M through Oct 14, $9.1M cash on hand. About $9.6M, 19% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: Duke University $45,366, Jane Street Capital $24,300, UNC Chapel Hill $19,499, Abrams & Abrams PA $17,500, Ricker Trucking $14,000, Give Forward Foundation $14,000.
Top PAC givers: DSCC $62,000, Jstreetpac $38,425, END Citizens United $12,000, Swing Left $11,000, AIR Line Pilots Association PAC $10,000, American Federation of Teachers, AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education $10,000, American Mobilization PAC $10,000, Advancing Democracy and Mobilization PAC $10,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: Planned Parenthood Votes North Carolina (FEC) $1.2M, AB PAC $948,410, WORKERS VOTE $467,050, Care in Action PAC $359,849.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: SLF PAC $30.0M, NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $9.1M, Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action $1.7M, NC First PAC $1.2M.
Largest TV buyers naming the candidate: Roy Cooper for North Carolina $2.4M, POL/Roy Cooper/US Senate/NC/Dem $1.9M, Old Town Media $1.8M, Cooper for North Carolina $1.4M.
Lakesha Womack, NC-14
Result: New: beat the incumbent. Seat held before by Tim Moore (R). Raters had Safe R.
Money raised: $59,183 through Oct 14, $4,793 cash on hand. About $45,914, 78% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: TN House of Representative $750, Kairos International $500, Mecklenburg County $500, Central Piedmont Community COL $400, NOT Empolyed $300, Kathryn Campbell $250.
Top PAC givers: North Carolina Democratic Party - Federal $3,000, Capitol Heel PAC $1,000, Price for Congress $1,000.
J. D. Ford, IN-05
Result: New: beat the incumbent. Seat held before by Victoria Spartz (R). Raters had Likely R.
Money raised: $1.4M through Oct 14, $324,529 cash on hand. About $857,729, 61% of the total, came from small donors giving under $200.
Top donor employers: United AIR Lines $7,000, IU Health Physicians $7,000, Indiana University $6,128, Barnes & Thornburg LLP $5,600, 3xlogic $5,500, KSM $4,500.
Top PAC givers: United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Active Ballot Club $5,000, American Federation of Teachers, AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education $5,000, Equality PAC $5,000, Hoosiers First PAC $5,000, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Political Action Committee $5,000, Midwest Region Laborers' Political League $5,000, Smart TD PAC $5,000, UAW - V - CAP (UAW Voluntary Community Action Program) 'int'l Union United Automobile Aerospace & Agricultural Implement Workers of America UAW $5,000.
Outside groups spending for the candidate: HOOSIER STATE VALUES PAC $145,073, Working America $30,324, Indivisible Project Inc. $1,913.
Outside groups spending against the candidate: NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1.1M, RESTORATION OF AMERICA PAC $99,550.
Still being decided
204 races have no winner yet. Statewide: Alaska Senate, Mississippi Senate, Alaska governor, Kansas governor, Oregon governor. House seats by state: Texas 37, New York 26, Ohio 12, California 12, Washington 10, Tennessee 9, Minnesota 8, Virginia 8, Wisconsin 7, South Carolina 7, North Carolina 6, Oregon 6, Florida 5, Oklahoma 5, Arizona 5, Utah 4, Mississippi 4, Nevada 4, Colorado 3, New Mexico 3, Michigan 3, West Virginia 2, Rhode Island 2, Montana 2, Louisiana 2, Alaska 1, South Dakota 1, North Dakota 1, Nebraska 1, Maine 1, Arkansas 1, Wyoming 1.
California and other mail-heavy states take one to three weeks to finish counting. Alaska counts ranked-choice ballots after the first count.
Called races to treat with care:
- TX-15: the race page reports the incumbent lost, but no winner is marked yet. Bobby Pulido 62.3%, Monica De La Cruz 37.7%, 95% of expected vote counted (NBC News).
The full list is in Appendix B.
Re-elected: every winner who already held the seat
| Race | Winner | Party | In office since | Raters' call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas Senate | Tom Cotton | R | 2014 2020 | Safe R |
| Colorado Senate | John Hickenlooper | D | 2020 | Safe D |
| Delaware Senate | Chris Coons | D | 2010 (special) 2014 2020 | Safe D |
| Florida Senate (special) | Ashley Moody | R | 2025 (appointed) | Likely R |
| Georgia Senate | Jon Ossoff | D | 2021 | Likely D |
| Idaho Senate | Jim Risch | R | 2008 2014 2020 | Safe R |
| Massachusetts Senate | Ed Markey | D | 2013 (special) 2014 2020 | Safe D |
| Nebraska Senate | Pete Ricketts | R | 2023 (appointed) 2024 (special) | Lean R |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory Booker | D | 2013 (special) 2014 2020 | Safe D |
| New Mexico Senate | Ben Ray Luján | D | 2020 | Safe D |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff Merkley | D | 2008 2014 2020 | Safe D |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed | D | 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 | Safe D |
| South Dakota Senate | Mike Rounds | R | 2014 2020 | Safe R |
| Tennessee Senate | Bill Hagerty | R | 2020 | Safe R |
| Virginia Senate | Mark Warner | D | 2008 2014 2020 | Safe D |
| West Virginia Senate | Shelley Moore Capito | R | 2014 2020 | Safe R |
| Arkansas governor | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R | 2022 | Safe R |
| Arizona governor | Katie Hobbs | D | 2022 | Likely D |
| Connecticut governor | Ned Lamont | D | 2018 | Safe D |
| Hawaii governor | Josh Green | D | 2022 | Safe D |
| Idaho governor | Brad Little | R | 2018 | Safe R |
| Illinois governor | JB Pritzker | D | 2018 | Safe D |
| Massachusetts governor | Maura Healey | D | 2022 | Safe D |
| Maryland governor | Wes Moore | D | 2022 | Safe D |
| Nebraska governor | Jim Pillen | R | 2022 | Likely R |
| New Hampshire governor | Kelly Ayotte | R | 2024 | Likely R |
| New York governor | Kathy Hochul | D | 2021 | Safe D |
| Pennsylvania governor | Josh Shapiro | D | 2022 | Safe D |
| South Dakota governor | Larry Rhoden | R | 2025 | Safe R |
| Vermont governor | Phil Scott | R | 2016 | Likely R |
| AL-02 | Shomari Figures | D | 2024 | Lean R |
| AL-03 | Mike Rogers | R | 2002 | Safe, not rated |
| AL-04 | Robert Aderholt | R | 1996 | Safe, not rated |
| AL-05 | Dale Strong | R | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| AL-06 | Gary Palmer | R | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| AL-07 | Terri Sewell | D | 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| AR-01 | Rick Crawford | R | 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| AR-03 | Steve Womack | R | 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| AR-04 | Bruce Westerman | R | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| AZ-03 | Yassamin Ansari | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| AZ-04 | Greg Stanton | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| AZ-07 | Adelita Grijalva | D | 2025 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| AZ-09 | Paul Gosar | R | 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-02 | Jared Huffman | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-03 | Ami Bera | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-05 | Tom McClintock | R | 2008 | Safe R |
| CA-08 | John Garamendi | D | 2009 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| CA-09 | Josh Harder | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier | D | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-12 | Lateefah Simon | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-15 | Kevin Mullin | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-16 | Sam Liccardo | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-17 | Ro Khanna | D | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren | D | 1994 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta | D | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-20 | Vince Fong | R | 2024 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa | D | 2004 | Safe D |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal | D | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-25 | Raul Ruiz | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-27 | George T. Whitesides | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-28 | Judy Chu | D | 2009 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| CA-30 | Laura Friedman | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-31 | Gil Cisneros | D | 2018 2020 (lost) 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-32 | Brad Sherman | D | 1996 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-33 | Pete Aguilar | D | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-35 | Norma Torres | D | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-36 | Ted Lieu | D | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-37 | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-39 | Mark Takano | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-41 | Linda Sánchez | D | 2002 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-42 | Robert Garcia | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-43 | Maxine Waters | D | 1990 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-44 | Nanette Barragán | D | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran | D | 2024 | Safe D |
| CA-46 | Lou Correa | D | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-50 | Scott Peters | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-51 | Sara Jacobs | D | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| CA-52 | Juan Vargas | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| CO-02 | Joe Neguse | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| CO-06 | Jason Crow | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| CO-07 | Brittany Pettersen | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| CT-02 | Joe Courtney | D | 2006 | Safe, not rated |
| CT-03 | Rosa DeLauro | D | 1990 | Safe, not rated |
| CT-04 | Jim Himes | D | 2008 | Safe, not rated |
| CT-05 | Jahana Hayes | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| DE-AL | Sarah McBride | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| FL-01 | Jimmy Patronis | R | 2025 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| FL-03 | Kat Cammack | R | 2020 | Safe R |
| FL-04 | Aaron Bean | R | 2022 | Safe R |
| FL-05 | John Rutherford | R | 2016 | Safe R |
| FL-06 | Randy Fine | R | 2025 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| FL-08 | Mike Haridopolos | R | 2024 | Safe R |
| FL-10 | Maxwell Frost | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| FL-12 | Gus Bilirakis | R | 2006 | Safe R |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | D | 2006 | Lean D |
| FL-15 | Laurel Lee | R | 2022 | Safe R |
| FL-17 | Greg Steube | R | 2018 | Safe R |
| FL-18 | Scott Franklin | R | 2020 | Safe R |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | D | 2004 | Safe, not rated |
| FL-21 | Brian Mast | R | 2016 | Safe R |
| FL-23 | Lois Frankel | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz | D | 2022 | Lean D |
| FL-28 | Carlos A. Giménez | R | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-02 | Sanford Bishop | D | 1992 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-03 | Brian Jack | R | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson | D | 2006 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-05 | Nikema Williams | D | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-06 | Lucy McBath | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-07 | Rich McCormick | R | 2022 | Safe R |
| GA-08 | Austin Scott | R | 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-09 | Andrew Clyde | R | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| GA-12 | Rick Allen | R | 2014 | Safe R |
| GA-14 | Clay Fuller | R | 2026 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| HI-01 | Ed Case | D | 2002 (special) 2006 (retired) 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| HI-02 | Jill Tokuda | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| ID-01 | Russ Fulcher | R | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| ID-02 | Mike Simpson | R | 1998 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-01 | Jonathan Jackson | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-03 | Delia Ramirez | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-05 | Mike Quigley | D | 2009 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| IL-06 | Sean Casten | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-10 | Brad Schneider | D | 2012 2014 (lost) 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-11 | Bill Foster | D | 2008 (special) 2010 (lost) 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-12 | Mike Bost | R | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-13 | Nikki Budzinski | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-14 | Lauren Underwood | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-15 | Mary Miller | R | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| IL-16 | Darin LaHood | R | 2015 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| IL-17 | Eric Sorensen | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| IN-01 | Frank J. Mrvan | D | 2020 | Safe D |
| IN-02 | Rudy Yakym | R | 2022 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| IN-03 | Marlin Stutzman | R | 2010 (special) 2016 (retired) 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| IN-04 | Jim Baird | R | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| IN-06 | Jefferson Shreve | R | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| IN-07 | André Carson | D | 2008 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| IN-08 | Mark Messmer | R | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| IN-09 | Erin Houchin | R | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| KS-01 | Tracey Mann | R | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| KS-02 | Derek Schmidt | R | 2024 | Likely R |
| KS-03 | Sharice Davids | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| KS-04 | Ron Estes | R | 2017 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| KY-01 | James Comer | R | 2016 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| KY-02 | Brett Guthrie | R | 2008 | Safe, not rated |
| KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| KY-05 | Hal Rogers | R | 1980 | Safe, not rated |
| LA-01 | Steve Scalise | R | 2008 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| LA-02 | Troy Carter | D | 2021 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| LA-03 | Clay Higgins | R | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| LA-04 | Mike Johnson | R | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| MA-01 | Richard Neal | D | 1988 | Safe, not rated |
| MA-02 | Jim McGovern | D | 1996 | Safe, not rated |
| MA-03 | Lori Trahan | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| MA-04 | Jake Auchincloss | D | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| MA-05 | Katherine Clark | D | 2013 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| MA-07 | Ayanna Pressley | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| MA-08 | Stephen Lynch | D | 2001 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| MA-09 | Bill Keating | D | 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| MD-01 | Andy Harris | R | 2010 | Safe R |
| MD-02 | Johnny Olszewski | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| MD-03 | Sarah Elfreth | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| MD-04 | Glenn Ivey | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| MD-06 | April McClain Delaney | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| MD-07 | Kweisi Mfume | D | 1986 1996 (resigned) 2020 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| MD-08 | Jamie Raskin | D | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| ME-01 | Chellie Pingree | D | 2008 | Safe, not rated |
| MI-01 | Jack Bergman | R | 2016 | Safe R |
| MI-02 | John Moolenaar | R | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| MI-03 | Hillary Scholten | D | 2022 | Safe D |
| MI-05 | Tim Walberg | R | 2006 2008 (lost) 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| MI-06 | Debbie Dingell | D | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| MI-08 | Kristen McDonald Rivet | D | 2024 | Safe D |
| MI-09 | Lisa McClain | R | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| MO-01 | Wesley Bell | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| MO-03 | Bob Onder | R | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| MO-04 | Mark Alford | R | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| MO-05 | Emanuel Cleaver | D | 2004 | Safe, not rated |
| MO-07 | Eric Burlison | R | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| MO-08 | Jason Smith | R | 2013 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| NC-02 | Deborah Ross | D | 2020 | Safe, not rated |
| NC-04 | Valerie Foushee | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| NC-12 | Alma Adams | D | 2014 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| NE-03 | Adrian Smith | R | 2006 | Safe, not rated |
| NH-02 | Maggie Goodlander | D | 2024 | Safe D |
| NJ-01 | Donald Norcross | D | 2014 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| NJ-03 | Herb Conaway | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| NJ-04 | Chris Smith | R | 1980 | Safe, not rated |
| NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer | D | 2016 | Safe, not rated |
| NJ-06 | Frank Pallone | D | 1988 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| NJ-08 | Rob Menendez | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| NJ-09 | Nellie Pou | D | 2024 | Safe D |
| NJ-10 | LaMonica McIver | D | 2024 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| NJ-11 | Analilia Mejia | D | 2026 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| OH-03 | Joyce Beatty | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
| OH-11 | Shontel Brown | D | 2021 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| OH-13 | Emilia Sykes | D | 2022 | Safe D |
| PA-02 | Brendan Boyle | D | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-04 | Madeleine Dean | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon | D | 2018 (special) | Safe, not rated |
| PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan | D | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-09 | Dan Meuser | R | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-11 | Lloyd Smucker | R | 2016 | Safe R |
| PA-12 | Summer Lee | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-13 | John Joyce | R | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-14 | Guy Reschenthaler | R | 2018 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-15 | Glenn Thompson | R | 2008 | Safe, not rated |
| PA-16 | Mike Kelly | R | 2010 | Safe R |
| PA-17 | Chris Deluzio | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| VA-08 | Don Beyer | D | 2014 | Safe, not rated |
| VA-09 | Morgan Griffith | R | 2010 | Safe, not rated |
| VA-10 | Suhas Subramanyam | D | 2024 | Safe, not rated |
| VT-AL | Becca Balint | D | 2022 | Safe, not rated |
| WI-02 | Mark Pocan | D | 2012 | Safe, not rated |
Not yet called: every race still being counted
| Race | Held before by | Party | Seat type | Raters' call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Senate | Dan Sullivan | R | Incumbent running | Tossup |
| Mississippi Senate | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| Alaska governor | Mike Dunleavy | R | Open seat | Lean D |
| Kansas governor | Laura Kelly | D | Open seat | Lean R |
| Oregon governor | Tina Kotek | D | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| AK-AL | Nick Begich III | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| AR-02 | French Hill | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| AZ-01 | David Schweikert | R | Open seat | Likely D |
| AZ-02 | Eli Crane | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| AZ-05 | Andy Biggs | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| AZ-06 | Juan Ciscomani | R | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| AZ-08 | Abraham Hamadeh | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| CA-04 | Mike Thompson | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-07 | Doris Matsui | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-11 | Nancy Pelosi | D | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| CA-14 | Aisha Wahab | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-22 | David Valadao | R | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| CA-23 | Jay Obernolte | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-29 | Luz Rivas | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-34 | Jimmy Gomez | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-40 | Young Kim; Ken Calvert | R | Two incumbents running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-47 | Dave Min | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| CA-48 | Darrell Issa | R | Open seat | Likely D |
| CO-03 | Jeff Hurd | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| CO-04 | Lauren Boebert | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| CO-05 | Jeff Crank | R | Incumbent running | Tossup |
| FL-07 | Cory Mills | R | Open seat (incumbent lost primary) | Lean R |
| FL-09 | Darren Soto | D | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| FL-26 | Mario Díaz-Balart | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| FL-27 | María Elvira Salazar | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| LA-05 | Julia Letlow | R | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| LA-06 | Cleo Fields | D | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| ME-02 | Jared Golden | D | Open seat | Tossup |
| MI-04 | Bill Huizenga | R | Incumbent running | Tossup |
| MI-07 | Tom Barrett | R | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| MI-10 | John James | R | Open seat | Lean D |
| MN-01 | Brad Finstad | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| MN-02 | Angie Craig | D | Open seat | Safe D |
| MN-03 | Kelly Morrison | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MN-04 | Betty McCollum | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MN-05 | Ilhan Omar | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MN-06 | Tom Emmer | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MN-07 | Michelle Fischbach | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MN-08 | Pete Stauber | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| MS-01 | Trent Kelly | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MS-02 | Bennie Thompson | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MS-03 | Michael Guest | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MS-04 | Mike Ezell | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| MT-01 | Ryan Zinke | R | Open seat | Tossup |
| MT-02 | Troy Downing | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NC-01 | Don Davis | D | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| NC-03 | Greg Murphy | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| NC-05 | Virginia Foxx | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| NC-07 | David Rouzer | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| NC-08 | Mark Harris | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| NC-10 | Pat Harrigan | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| ND-AL | Julie Fedorchak | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NE-01 | Mike Flood | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| NM-01 | Melanie Stansbury | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NM-02 | Gabe Vasquez | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| NM-03 | Teresa Leger Fernandez | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NV-01 | Dina Titus | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| NV-02 | Mark Amodei | R | Open seat | Lean R |
| NV-03 | Susie Lee | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| NV-04 | Steven Horsford | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| NY-01 | Nick LaLota | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| NY-02 | Andrew Garbarino | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| NY-03 | Tom Suozzi | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| NY-04 | Laura Gillen | D | Incumbent running | Safe D |
| NY-05 | Gregory Meeks | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-06 | Grace Meng | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-07 | Nydia Velázquez | D | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| NY-08 | Hakeem Jeffries | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-09 | Yvette Clarke | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-10 | Dan Goldman | D | Open seat (incumbent lost primary) | Safe, not rated |
| NY-11 | Nicole Malliotakis | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-12 | Jerry Nadler | D | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| NY-13 | Adriano Espaillat | D | Open seat (incumbent lost primary) | Safe, not rated |
| NY-14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-15 | Ritchie Torres | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-16 | George Latimer | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-17 | Mike Lawler | R | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| NY-18 | Pat Ryan | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-19 | Josh Riley | D | Incumbent running | Safe D |
| NY-20 | Paul Tonko | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-21 | Elise Stefanik | R | Open seat | Lean R |
| NY-22 | John Mannion | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-23 | Nick Langworthy | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| NY-24 | Claudia Tenney | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-25 | Joseph Morelle | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| NY-26 | Tim Kennedy | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OH-01 | Greg Landsman | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| OH-02 | David Taylor | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OH-04 | Jim Jordan | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OH-05 | Bob Latta | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OH-06 | Michael Rulli | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OH-07 | Max Miller | R | Incumbent running | Tossup |
| OH-08 | Warren Davidson | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur | D | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| OH-10 | Mike Turner | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| OH-12 | Troy Balderson | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OH-14 | David Joyce | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OH-15 | Mike Carey | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| OK-01 | Kevin Hern | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| OK-02 | Josh Brecheen | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OK-03 | Frank Lucas | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OK-04 | Tom Cole | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OK-05 | Stephanie Bice | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OR-02 | Cliff Bentz | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OR-03 | Maxine Dexter | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OR-04 | Val Hoyle | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OR-05 | Janelle Bynum | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| OR-06 | Andrea Salinas | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| RI-01 | Gabe Amo | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| RI-02 | Seth Magaziner | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| SC-01 | Nancy Mace | R | Open seat | Lean R |
| SC-02 | Joe Wilson | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| SC-03 | Sheri Biggs | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| SC-04 | William Timmons | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| SC-05 | Ralph Norman | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| SC-06 | Jim Clyburn | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| SC-07 | Russell Fry | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| SD-AL | Dusty Johnson | R | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| TN-01 | Diana Harshbarger | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TN-02 | Tim Burchett | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TN-03 | Chuck Fleischmann | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TN-04 | Scott DesJarlais | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TN-05 | Andy Ogles | R | Open seat (incumbent lost primary) | Safe R |
| TN-06 | John Rose | R | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| TN-07 | Matt Van Epps | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| TN-08 | David Kustoff | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TN-09 | Steve Cohen | D | Open seat | Likely R |
| TX-01 | Nathaniel Moran | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-02 | Dan Crenshaw | R | Open seat (incumbent lost primary) | Safe R |
| TX-03 | Keith Self | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-04 | Pat Fallon | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-05 | Lance Gooden | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| TX-06 | Jake Ellzey | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-08 | Morgan Luttrell | R | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| TX-09 | None (new seat) | O | New seat | Likely R |
| TX-10 | Michael McCaul | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| TX-11 | August Pfluger | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-12 | Craig Goldman | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-13 | Ronny Jackson | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-14 | Randy Weber | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-17 | Pete Sessions | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-19 | Jodey Arrington | R | Open seat | Safe, not rated |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-21 | Chip Roy | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| TX-22 | Troy Nehls | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| TX-23 | Vacant | R | Open seat (vacant) | Lean R |
| TX-24 | Beth Van Duyne | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| TX-25 | Roger Williams | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-26 | Brandon Gill | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-27 | Michael Cloud | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar | D | Incumbent running | Likely D |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-30 | None (new seat) | O | New seat | Safe, not rated |
| TX-31 | John Carter | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| TX-32 | None (new seat) | O | New seat | Safe R |
| TX-33 | Jasmine Crockett; Julie Johnson | D | Open seat (incumbent lost primary) | Safe, not rated |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez | D | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| TX-35 | None (new seat) | O | New seat | Tossup |
| TX-36 | Brian Babin | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-37 | Greg Casar | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| TX-38 | Wesley Hunt | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| UT-01 | None (new seat) | O | New seat | Safe, not rated |
| UT-02 | Blake Moore | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| UT-03 | Celeste Maloy | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| UT-04 | Mike Kennedy | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| VA-01 | Rob Wittman | R | Incumbent running | Tossup |
| VA-02 | Jen Kiggans | R | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| VA-03 | Bobby Scott | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| VA-04 | Jennifer McClellan | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| VA-05 | John McGuire | R | Incumbent running | Lean R |
| VA-06 | Ben Cline | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| VA-07 | Eugene Vindman | D | Incumbent running | Safe D |
| VA-11 | James Walkinshaw | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WA-01 | Suzan DelBene | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WA-02 | Rick Larsen | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | D | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| WA-04 | Dan Newhouse | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| WA-05 | Michael Baumgartner | R | Incumbent running | Likely R |
| WA-06 | Emily Randall | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WA-07 | Pramila Jayapal | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WA-08 | Kim Schrier | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WA-09 | Adam Smith | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WA-10 | Marilyn Strickland | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WI-01 | Bryan Steil | R | Incumbent running | Tilt R |
| WI-03 | Derrick Van Orden | R | Incumbent running | Lean D |
| WI-04 | Gwen Moore | D | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WI-05 | Scott Fitzgerald | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WI-06 | Glenn Grothman | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| WI-07 | Tom Tiffany | R | Open seat | Safe R |
| WI-08 | Tony Wied | R | Incumbent running | Safe R |
| WV-01 | Carol Miller | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WV-02 | Riley Moore | R | Incumbent running | Safe, not rated |
| WY-AL | Harriet Hageman | R | Open seat | Safe R |
Sources
How this was built
Before polls closed on November 3, Civly listed every House, Senate and governor race: who held the seat, the candidates, the race raters’ calls, money raised, outside spending and TV orders. Each winner was then sorted against that list. Race calls come from network and AP projections as recorded on Wikipedia’s race pages at 7:12 AM EST on November 4, and the largest upsets were checked against news reports. Vote shares are from NBC News. Money raised and outside spending are from FEC filings, and TV orders from broadcast stations’ FCC public files.
Governor races have no money figures, because state campaign finance is not included. TV figures cover broadcast stations only.
Civly Politics
Money, results and voters in one place
Civly joins federal filings, TV orders and state voter files for every race.
Civly Politics Research · results as of 7:12 AM EST, November 4, 2026 (unofficial). Published November 4, 2026.
All computation is Civly’s. Any errors are ours. Results describe vote counts and spending and nothing about the conduct or fitness of any candidate.