Winners called
24 of 27
Politics Research · Forecast Scorecard
2026 midterms · Unofficial results as of November 4, 2026
Civly’s November forecast picked the winner in 24 of 27 races and in all seven with no public poll
On November 1 we forecast 27 House and Senate races in six states, and we published the forecast on Election Day. The candidate we had ahead won 24 of the 27, or 89%, including all three Senate races. In the seven races with no public poll, we picked the winner in all seven.
Unofficial results
These results are the unofficial counts as of November 4, 2026. We will update this page with certified results as each state certifies: Florida (November 17), Pennsylvania (counties by November 23), North Carolina (November 24), Kansas (December 1), New Jersey (by December 3) and New York (by December 15). Ten races have not been called yet: FL-7, FL-9, FL-13, FL-27, NY-1, NY-3, NY-4, NY-17, NY-21 and NC-1. For those, the table shows the candidate leading the count.
Share called right
89%
Races with no public poll
7 of 7
Senate races
3 of 3
Races with no public poll
Seven races had no public poll. We called all seven.
We found no public poll for FL-2, FL-12, NY-1, NY-3, NY-4, NY-19 or NJ-9 before the election. Our forecast had the winner ahead in all seven. Civly’s simulated voters, drawn from each state’s voter file, had the winner ahead in all seven on their own. NY-1, NY-3 and NY-4 have not been called yet.
Polling where there is none
Simulated voters give a campaign a read on its district when no pollster has surveyed it. See how synthetic polling works.
Race by race
Our call and the winner in all 27 races
| Race | Our call | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | |||
| FL Senate | MoodyR | MoodyR | ✓ |
| NC Senate | CooperD | CooperD | ✓ |
| KS Senate | HamiltonD | HamiltonD | ✓ |
| Florida House | |||
| FL-2No public poll | RogersR | RogersR | ✓ |
| FL-7 | ElijahR | ElijahRLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| FL-9 | GreenR | SotoDLeading, not yet called | ✗ |
| FL-12No public poll | BilirakisR | BilirakisR | ✓ |
| FL-13 | LunaR | LunaRLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| FL-14 | BeltranR | CastorD | ✗ |
| FL-16 | GrutersR | GrutersR | ✓ |
| FL-22 | AskarR | DandiyaD | ✗ |
| FL-25 | MoskowitzD | MoskowitzD | ✓ |
| FL-27 | SalazarR | SalazarRLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| New York House | |||
| NY-1No public poll | LaLotaR | LaLotaRLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| NY-3No public poll | SuozziD | SuozziDLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| NY-4No public poll | GillenD | GillenDLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| NY-17 | ConleyD | ConleyDLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| NY-19No public poll | RileyD | RileyD | ✓ |
| NY-21 | ConstantinoR | ConstantinoRLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| Pennsylvania House | |||
| PA-1 | HarvieD | HarvieD | ✓ |
| PA-7 | BrooksD | BrooksD | ✓ |
| PA-8 | CognettiD | CognettiD | ✓ |
| PA-10 | StelsonD | StelsonD | ✓ |
| North Carolina House | |||
| NC-1 | DavisD | DavisDLeading, not yet called | ✓ |
| NC-11 | AgerD | AgerD | ✓ |
| New Jersey House | |||
| NJ-7 | BennettD | BennettD | ✓ |
| NJ-9No public poll | PouD | PouD | ✓ |
“Our call” is the candidate ahead in the forecast published November 3. D: Democrat. R: Republican.
The three we missed
FL-9, FL-14 and FL-22
We had the Republican ahead in FL-9, FL-14 and FL-22. Kathy Castor won FL-14 and Pia Dandiya won FL-22 for the Democrats. Darren Soto, the Democrat, leads in FL-9, which has not been called. FL-14 and FL-22 were two of the five races our forecast had within 2 points.
Fingerprint
The forecast file is unchanged
cbab66d3882aa6cdda9b376a134fe1c1e221e444e2b0b70b2a7bb8b015b70e78
This is the SHA-256 fingerprint we published with the forecast on November 3. The forecast file still matches it. Download the file and check it with shasum -a 256 blended_forecast_2026.csv.
Public polls
The races with a public poll
Twenty of the 27 races had a public poll. In those races our forecast picked the winner in 17 and the polls in 16. The polls showed a tie in FL-7 and FL-9. The polls are the ones shown with the forecast.
Sources
Results
Results are the unofficial counts from each state’s election office: the Florida Division of Elections, the Pennsylvania Department of State, the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the Kansas Secretary of State and the New York State Board of Elections. Where a county had counted further, its own count is used: Nassau, Westchester and Chenango counties in New York. New Jersey posts no statewide count until certification, so its results are the county clerks’ counts. All were read on November 4, 2026.
Civly synthetic polling
Simulated voters for your race
Civly builds simulated electorates from state voter files for a single district or a whole state.
Civly Politics Research · forecast made November 1, 2026 and published November 3, 2026; scorecard published November 4, 2026.
All computation is Civly’s. Any errors are ours. A forecast describes expected vote margins and nothing about the conduct or fitness of any candidate. Not investment or wagering advice.