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Civly’s forecast of 27 races for November 3, 2026

Democrats lead in 15 of the 27 races and Republicans in 12. Five are within 2 points: FL-14, FL-22, NY-17, NC-1 and the Kansas Senate race. The forecast covers House and Senate races in six states: Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Jersey and Kansas.

The leader’s margin in each race

Candidates, forecast and public polls

Civly’s forecast is the leader’s margin among decided voters, in points. Public polls are shown as published, with undecided voters still in, so their margins tend to be smaller. A Senate race shows the average of its polls since October 1. A House race shows its latest poll not paid for by a party or campaign. If every poll was, the latest one is shown and marked. 20 of the 27 races have a public poll since September 1.

How each number was made

Two thirds of each number comes from the latest ratings of three independent forecasters: the Cook Political Report (October 30), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (October 27) and Inside Elections (October 29). Each rating is turned into points (Toss-up 0, Tilt 2.5, Lean 5, Likely 10, Solid 18) and the three are averaged.

One third comes from Civly’s simulated voters. For each House race we drew 1,000 likely voters at random from the state voter file inside the district (1,500 statewide for a Senate race). An open-source AI model running on Civly’s own computers answered for each voter, given their age, sex, race where the state records it, party registration and voting record. It was asked how the voter voted for President in 2024 and how they would vote in this race. Each voter counts as one vote for the side they lean to.

The race starts from the district’s real 2024 presidential result, moves by the gap between each voter’s race answer and their own 2024 answer, and then moves with the state’s polling shift since 2024. A Senate race with its own recent polls takes the polls’ level. No real voters were interviewed. This is not a poll and carries no margin of error.

27 of the 100 most competitive races

The 100 most competitive House and Senate races on the September 2026 ratings, limited to the six states where Civly holds the full state voter file with party registration: Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Jersey and Kansas. That leaves 24 House races and 3 Senate races. The list was fixed on September 28, before any forecast ran.

SHA-256 of the forecast file

Anyone can check after the election that the published file was not changed.

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