Races won
92 of 123
Politics Research · Client Results
2026 midterms · Unofficial results as of November 4, 2026
Civly’s clients won 75% of called races, and Down-Ballot Bundle candidates won 5 of 8
We worked on 139 races on the November 3 ballot. In the 123 races called by the evening of November 4, our clients won 92 of them, or 75%. Five of the eight candidates who used Civly’s Down-Ballot Bundle won, and four of the five beat a sitting Republican.
Unofficial results
These are the unofficial counts as of 8 PM EST on November 4, 2026. Sixteen races were still being counted, and 11 of them were within 2 points. We will update this page as states certify their results.
Win rate
75%
Down-Ballot Bundle
5 of 8
Still being counted
16
Down-Ballot Bundle
Five of the eight bundle candidates won
The Down-Ballot Bundle is Civly’s package for state legislative, local and judicial campaigns. It includes a simulated poll of the district (computer-generated voters drawn from the voter file, not a survey of real people), a check of how AI assistants answer voter questions about the candidate, monitoring of the opponent and the race, and 200 verified donor phone numbers for call time. Eight candidates who used it were on the November 3 ballot.
| Candidate | Race | Result | Vote share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clay MiddletonD | South Carolina House, District 116 | Won, beat Rep. James Teeple (R) | 55.5% to 44.4% |
| Matt McLaughlinD | New Hampshire Senate, District 9 | Won, beat Sen. Denise Ricciardi (R) | 53.6% to 46.4% |
| Kurt WebberD | New Hampshire Senate, District 2 | Won, beat Sen. Tim Lang Sr. (R) | 52.1% to 47.9% |
| Jess RiveraD | North Carolina Senate, District 4 | Won, beat Sen. Buck Newton (R) | 51.1% to 48.9% |
| Vincent CollisD | Iowa House, District 61 | Won | 75.6% to 23.7% |
| Justin KurthD | Colorado Senate, District 4 (open seat) | Lost to Teddy Collins (R) | 43.8% to 56.2% |
| Alphonso Small Jr.DSouth Carolina Democratic Party | Beaufort County Sheriff | Lost to Doug Seifert (R) | 40.4% to 59.5% |
| Heather LewisI | Idaho House, District 8, Seat A | Lost to Rob Beiswenger (R) | 39.3% to 60.7% |
Four of the five winners beat a sitting Republican, and each of those seats changed party. The three losses were by 12 to 21 points.
All clients
The record by type of client
Outside the Down-Ballot Bundle, we describe clients by type rather than by name.
| Client type | Won | Lost | Win rate | Still counting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down-Ballot Bundle candidates | 5 | 3 | 63% | 0 |
| Other candidates whose campaigns hired Civly | 4 | 6 | 40% | 0 |
| A consulting firm’s list of Republican incumbents and nominees to track | 40 | 4 | 91% | 11 |
| State legislative caucuses and committees | 26 | 4 | 87% | 3 |
| State parties (statewide races we worked on) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0 |
| PACs, advocacy groups and digital firms | 17 | 11 | 61% | 2 |
| Total | 92 | 31 | 75% | 16 |
Without the consulting firm’s list, which was mostly the national House and Senate races, the record is 52 of 79, or 66%.
What the breakdown shows
Legislative races went better than statewide races
In the state legislative races we worked on for caucuses and committees, the client’s side won 21 of 25 called races. Their other 5 races, for Congress and governor, were all won. For state parties, every statewide race we worked on went Republican, by 3 to 9 points. In the same states, Democrats gained seats in the legislature.
Congressional, Senate and governor races. On the consulting firm’s list, the Democrat won 40 of the 44 called races. Of the 11 races on that list still being counted, the Democrat led in 6 as of November 4.
Candidate vetting is not counted
One client had us vet 79 local and judicial candidates who were on the ballot. In most of those seats it asked us to research two or more of the candidates, so a win rate does not apply to that work. Those candidates are not in the totals above.
Method
How we counted
A race counts only if Civly did paid work in it and our records show which side the client was on. Races where the research could have served either side are left out. For the consulting firm’s list of Republicans, the Democrat in each race is counted as the client’s side.
Civly’s work in these races included research on opponents, donor lists, voter lists, simulated polls and message tests, and daily news briefings.
Sources
Results
Results are the unofficial counts from state and county election offices, read the evening of November 4. Where a state posts no results on election night, as in New Hampshire, we used local news tallies and nonpartisan results trackers. Federal races use NBC News race pages. None of these results are certified.
Civly Down-Ballot Bundle
Polling, AI checks and donors for one race
The Down-Ballot Bundle covers one state legislative, local or judicial race.
Civly Politics Research · unofficial counts as of November 4, 2026; published November 5, 2026.
All counting is Civly’s. Any errors are ours. A win or loss describes the result of a race and nothing about the conduct or fitness of any candidate.